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Researchers perform multi-century high-resolution climate simulations
Using state-of-the-art supercomputers, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientists have performed a 400-year high-resolution global ocean-atmosphere simulation with results that are more similar to actual observations of surface winds and sea surface temperatures.
The research, led by LLNL atmospheric scientist Govindasamy Bala, appears in the April 1 edition of the Journal of Climate.
The researchers used the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and Department of Energy. CCSM is a global ocean-atmosphere modeling framework designed to simulate the climate of the Earth. It is a comprehensive general circulation model that consists of complex submodels for the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. In the earlier versions, spectral methods were available to solve the transport of water vapor, temperature and momentum in the atmosphere.
In the LLNL simulation, the researchers assessed the performance of a new dynamical method for atmospheric transport that was developed at NASA by Ricky Rood (a co-author of the study at the University of Michigan) and Shian-Jiann Lin of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The new method is called finite volume transport.
The Livermore team found substantial improvements in the simulated global surface winds and sea surface temperatures. Team members also noted large improvements in the simulation of tropical variability in the Pacific, distribution of Arctic sea ice thickness and the ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
“We found that this coupled model is a state-of-the-art climate model with simulation capabilities in the class of those used for assessments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),” Bala said.
The simulation was performed on the LLNL supercomputer Thunder, using about 500 processors or slightly more than 10 percent of Thunder’s capacity. The 400-year-long simulation, performed over a period of three months, was part of an LLNL Grand Challenge Computing project. This simulation, at about 100-kilometer resolution for the atmosphere, is the highest resolution multi-century CCSM simulation to date.
Under the same Grand Challenge Computing project, the researchers earlier performed a 1,000-year-long simulation corresponding to the climate of pre-industrial times that enabled the scientists to estimate the “climate noise” in frost days, snow depth and stream flow in the Western United States. The collaborative study between LLNL and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which appeared in a Science article earlier this year, pinpointed the cause of that regional diminishing water flow to humans.
The present study is a collaborative effort between LLNL, the University of Michigan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NCAR. Other LLNL researchers include Art Mirin, Julie McClean, Dave Bader, Peter Gleckler and Krishna Achuta Rao (who is now at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi).
Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a national security laboratory, with a mission to ensure national security and apply science and technology to the important issues of our time. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is managed by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.
Submitted by BJS on Wed, 2008-04-02 06:24.
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possible conclusions?
I would guess this new computer modeling could be used to predict future climate changes or possibly weather patterns. Also, there usually aren't vast scientific conspiracies, since scientists are usually just as happy to be proven wrong as to be proven correct. If scientists say there is a 95% probability that not only is global warming real, but that humans are responsible for it, then its probably the case. Dissenting evidence will be presented and peer reviewed, to bury any such evidence is unethical, and most scientists wouldn't even consider doing it.
Won't tell, won't tell
They didn't say because it didn't give them the results they hoped to see, no doubt. No global warming.
Do tell, do tell
Ok, so the resolution is amazing and the computing feat is astounding, congratulations, well done and all, but ... what did their new hi-res unprecidented 400-year simulation actually say?
Was Climate Change "Created" or did it "Evolve"
My child came home from school yesterday and told me that he had been chastized by his teacher for suggesting that "Global Warming" might be a hoax -- I had been watching the CBC Newsworld Global Warming Doomsday Called Off (April 2007) and he'd caught a bit of it and I guess relayed what he'd heard to his class only to be told that this was not true and that he must 'accept' Global Warming as a fact!
So nice to see the Ontario schools taking Science education so seriously :) What is really ironic is they had just completed a section on "Medieval Times" which, not surprisingly, failed to mention the Medieval Warming Period that takes out the IPCC's famous 'hockey stick' :)
GIGO
It doesn't matter how powerful the computer is. If the model incorporates faulty assumptions, the output will be garbage. The best IPCC models fail to properly account for soot, cloud effects, ocean multi-decade oscillations, solar variations, water vapour feedbacks, and much more.
It is not so difficult to call IPCC GCM output garbage when one looks at recent Argo ocean heat output that shows earth cooling (not warming) and a significant divergence of temperature trends from IPCC trend lines.
It is a big problem.
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