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Report on the Implications of Peak Oil

November 25, 2007

Fred Bortz's picture

CT representative Terry Backer added a comment to my earlier blog entry about his op-ed article written with CT state senator Bob Duff.

It's worth opening a new thread to discuss it, so I reproduce it here. Please consider the implications for your own areas and comment.

Here's what he wrote (a few typos corrected but otherwise not edited):
---

Fred,
The op-ed that Bob Duff and I wrote for the Connecticut Post was preceded by a informational hearing of the Connecticut Legislative Peak Natural Gas Caucus (well its was written before the hearing and ran a week after). Since the November first hearing I have written and submitted to the legislative leaders and the Gov. in Connecticut a report named Peak Oil Production and the Implications on Connecticut.

We are concerned enough by the prospects of oil production falling or remaining level having unacceptable impacts on our people to start the dialog in the state. We don't know when Peak Oil will happen - or if it has happened - our when or if technology will mitigate the impacts -- we don't care to debate that --we have all been around politics far long enough to know it moves at glacial pace. Even if we take the most optimistic of views like that of EIA or CERA --it's not that long of a lead time considering the work that needs to be done and the slow pace of government. The economist, oil men, business folks all have a different duty than we do. Of course we will need them to make the change happen but we need to pick the destination or they will just do more of the same.

You can read the report here on one of my websites http://www.terrybacker.com/notes_detail.php?notes_id=3
Your buddies in CT need to understand that progress on this matter will come from the local yokels not the indentured servants in DC.
Thanks
Representative
Terry Backer
---

Terry's point is that political action on Peak Oil probably needs to begin at the local level, with state legislators the most likely leaders.

If any of my readers are in the legislatures of their states or have influence in state government, I suggest contacting Terry or Bob in CT and finding out how you can get the grass roots to contribute to solving this looming issue before it reaches a point where emergency actions may be needed.

At the very least, it's time to raise everyone's awareness of peak oil.

Permalink

Comments

The Addendum

December 12, 2007 by Eric the Leaf, 1 year 47 weeks ago
Comment id: 26425

Terry, this reader is grateful for your update and your legislative effort. I wish you the best in your important work and look forward to reading the addendum.

Peak Oil Report Addendum

December 11, 2007 by Anonymous, 1 year 47 weeks ago
Comment id: 26407

Hello Fred,
I just dropped by to let you and your readers know that Senator Duff and myself met today to plan for the coming legislative session. I have been contacted by the House Chair of the Energy Committee who has asked to meet and talk about legislative actions concerning peak oil production. We also have been contacted by the Senate President Pro Temp to come in and discuss future energy supplies.

I am sure it will be a slow start, slower than I would like but I think we can get a start --believe me after 16 years in the legislature getting a start on a issue with out one vote behind it is difficult especially something with vast implications to the economy as peak oil. It is so enormous its hard for legislators to warp their minds around --health care, education they get that.

Lastly, we are just finishing up an addendum to the report which looks at Tar Sands and Shale oil - at only an EROEI of one barrel to produce three (conventional oil can be as high as 1 -15) and the resource limitation of water and natural gas its discouraging. I however believe the transition from a lot of cheap oil to a less and more expensive oil can happen without Armageddon and be done well if we do it right and now. I'll send along the link to the addendum on tar sands and shale oil when we are finished.

Terry Backer

Peak Oil

November 28, 2007 by Anonymous, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26191

"with state legislators the most likely leaders"

I think not. All around the world state legislators are the very people that are saying "business as usual".

I think you will find that if Peak Oil /is/ true leadership will come at very local, community level.

Steve

Agree and disagree with Steve on peak oil

November 29, 2007 by Fred Bortz, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26200

Thanks, Steve, for your contribution. I agree with it in some ways and disagree in others.

Here in PA, we have the best state legislature that money can buy, as they say. But there are occasional individual legislators who become true leaders of necessary grassroots efforts. They are in a position to actually do something about it, as are Backer and Duff in CT.

I have even less faith in the ability of local government to get involved. The community leadership that Steve discusses will come from individuals who care enough to push it.

Large scale action, however, will require government involvement. That seems more likely to start at the state level than the national level. Local governments are too small to have much influence, except for a few major cities/counties.

Fred Bortz -- Science and technology books for young readers (www.fredbortz.com) and Science book reviews (www.scienceshelf.com)

Peak Oil and Science?

November 27, 2007 by Eric the Leaf, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26183

I’d like to add a little more to this discussion, seeing as how the peak oil topic does not appear frequently on science-related blogs unless it is tied tangentially to issues surrounding global warming. This is the gist of my comment and my question.

I think there are many reasons. I will forward one for argument’s sake. To wit: global warming science, comparatively speaking, is uncomplicated. You take the forcings, do some addition and subtraction, and come to the conclusion that human action has contributed to global warming. Flash to polar bears looking for ice, hurricanes bashing New Orleans or Bangladesh, ice caps melting—you get the picture. Science has discovered the true nature of the problem and science, along with enlightened political leadership, will be the solution! If only people would listen. Save the planet!

Peak oil? What’s that? It sounds kind of messy. Maybe it’s a political issue or some technical problem. Isn’t it just a bunch of retired geologists sounding the alarm anyway? Get a few plug-in hybrids—problem solved. Not really an issue for serious science guys (and gals) and certainly not of comparable magnitude to global warming, right?

What do you think?

Too simplistic on both global warming and peak oil

November 28, 2007 by Fred Bortz, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26186

Hi, Eric -- or is it Mr. Leaf? :)

I realize you're trying to stir things up, but in doing so, you've managed to dredge up the overstated science of global warming and the oversimplified picture of Peak Oil.

One of the big problems with the otherwise outstanding "Inconvenient Truth" presentation is the cutesy polar bears, which are only a small part of the ecological concern, and the connection of global warming with hurricane frequency and intensity that may not be there.

Politics plays havoc with science by oversimplification and misrepresentation. As such, people come to think that everything is scientifically unambiguous and there is only one political solution to global warming.

I would hope readers of Science Blog are looking for a little more sophistication.

I think we need to look at Peak Oil in the same way. We need to discuss the interplay between economics, politics, and science. We need to understand the limits of our knowledge of the supply side before we can devise policies that reduce demand in a rational way.

Just as I have been pointing to books that discuss various policy responses to global warming while treating the science with respect, so too do I hope that this blog can provide opportunities to explore the various responses to peak oil.

The difference between peak oil and global warming is that (as I think you are implying) we have much more robust scientific data sets, and better developed theoretical and practical approaches in climate science than we do for looking at oil supply and production.

That means the global warming scenarios have a much stronger scientific foundation than do the peak oil scenarios. Yet there is no doubt that peak oil is going to become a critical issue at the interface of science and politics/policy before we have fully figured out how to handle global warming.

The two issues will become more intertwined in the future and may even produce a synergy for technologies that allow societies to advance without depending on large supplies of cheap oil.

We need better information about oil reserves and production before we can have full confidence in any peak oil projections. Since that information will be hard to come by, our science will be weaker than we would like even as the problem becomes more apparent to us.

Fred Bortz -- Science and technology books for young readers (www.fredbortz.com) and Science book reviews (www.scienceshelf.com)

Peak oil awareness

November 26, 2007 by Eric the Leaf, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26171

I have read the Backer et. al. report and it is an outstanding summary of the peak oil crisis using some of the latest information available. I think their effort to bring awareness of the issue in CT is remarkable. Fred also deserves credit for his persistence in pursuing the topic on the Science Blog. However, the news is grim indeed.

I wonder how this report is being received and if Terry Backer can keep Fred up-to-date somehow. I also agree that local action is vital, and that begins with promoting education and awareness.

Peak oil is slowly becoming more mainstream, no doubt in part due to rising oil and gasoline prices. Still, the usual suspects are often trotted out to explain what is going on—refinery problems, terrorist attacks or threats, growing demand in China and India, market speculation, etc. These certainly are relevant matters, but the underlying geological reality is dangerous territory to tread.

That the market will respond with readily available alternative technologies or tap “prodigious” unconventional oil opportunities are often seized upon to deflect concern or minimize the depth of the crisis. The latter is frequently the basis for the more optimistic dates for peak (such as CERA), usually citing available or recoverable reserves that include tar sands and oil shales. These estimates fail to account for production rates and other energy and water related constraints on production. In other words, the stated availability (production/unit time) of the resource is misleading, approaching fanciful. The basis for estimates used by the federal government (the USGS 2000 report) now appears wildly optimistic and reassessments are beginning to bear this out, as stated in the Backer et. al. report.

In my opinion the Backer report and many of the other resources cited by Fred are the place to begin your research if you are new to the issue. Inform yourself and others.

(By the way, I was unable to open the Grinzo pdf file. Hopefully, I’ll have the opportunity to read it when the problem is solved.)

Some useful peak oil references

November 25, 2007 by Fred Bortz, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26148

If you haven't been following this topic, or if you have and want a refresher, here are some previously cited references:

My review of two recent books on the topic which discuss the implications of "peak oil."

The Oil Drum website, where most contributors believe we are at or on the verge of peak oil.

And here's a new reference with a different view of when we will reach peak oil, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a consulting firm noted in the Backer comment that I used to start this thread.

CERA is headed by Daniel Yergin, who is frequently sought out by news media when they want an expert viewpoint on energy issues.

I have met Dan a couple of times at life-cycle events in the his family. (I have a good friend among his close relatives.) We have even exchanged autographed books. On the subject of peak oil, Dan has a contrarian viewpoint based on a different interpretation of the data. He thinks we have a couple of decades left to go.

Policy decisions based on peak oil would be different if Dan is correct rather than the majority of experts. But this is not a completely clear cut case, and I recommend considering all the evidence and interpretations. In fact, I'm going to contact Dan to see if he or one of his scientists might add a comment here.

In other words, folks, educate yourselves about this important issue while alerting your elected officials to do the same.

Fred Bortz -- Science and technology books for young readers (www.fredbortz.com) and Science book reviews (www.scienceshelf.com)

Peak oil presentation

November 25, 2007 by Anonymous, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26149

Anyone who would like a self-contained, freely redistributable crash course on peak oil might want to give my presentation The Oil Crunch a look. I gave it in person in September, and have had a lot of positive feedback from people there and online.

(For those who just can't wait to find out if I agree with them or not: I'm in the "near-term peak" crowd. Specifically, I agree with Chris Skrebowski that we're looking at a peak in the 2011/2012 time frame, although I think his estimate of the level of oil production at the peak, 92 million barrels/day, is a bit high.

I'm also convinced that we need a grass-roots movement to force politicians to do the right things regarding peak oil. And that movement must begin with education.)

http://www.grinzo.com/energy/downloads/theoilcrunch09x20x2007.pdf

"The Oil Crunch" presentation by Lou Grinzo

November 26, 2007 by Fred Bortz, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26164

I have had a chance to go through Lou Grinzo's presentation called "The Oil Crunch," for which he provided a link here:

http://www.grinzo.com/energy/downloads/theoilcrunch09x20x2007.pdf

This is very informative and puts "Peak Oil" into a very interesting perspective, noting that the "Oil Crunch" is a related but not identical phenomenon.

Thanks, Lou, for an outstanding contribution to this discussion. I encourage my readers to download it.

Fred Bortz -- Science and technology books for young readers (www.fredbortz.com) and Science book reviews (www.scienceshelf.com)

"Peak Oil" newset form of Malthusisms

November 25, 2007 by Anonymous, 1 year 49 weeks ago
Comment id: 26145

But it makes you feel better to discuss it like you know what yo are talking abou.



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