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First, a two degree rise in average global temperature is enormous. We are already seeing signs that the ice sheets in Greenland have begun melting at an alarming rate. According to the current issue of the highly respected New Scientist magazine, they contain enough ice to raise sea level world wide by six meters -- 20 feet. Even a five-foot rise is certainly a significant increase in sea level, and it appears we'll be very lucky if we can keep it to that in the remaining years of this century.

With a two degree change in average temperature (which means much larger changes in some places like the Arctic), world-wide weather patterns and, worse, ocean currents, are likely to change significantly. So are patterns of agriculture.

People will survive, but can you imagine the political havoc that will occur if coastal cities and low-lying islands around the world start disappearing, or if the Gulf Stream shuts down? These are the kinds of worst-case scenarios that are beginning to seem possible based on reasonable projections. I'm not saying they will happen, but even the best case scenarios are worrisome enough.

One of the books I've cited, The Little Ice Age, does an excellent job of explaining what trends we have already seen as a result of the industrial revolution and what is likely to come. Those changes are a lot more signifcant that you seem to realize. Get that book and read it. It's a fascinating history as well as an eye-opening way to assess the present and future.

Another book, The Change in the Weather, gives an excellent overall picture of the view from 1999. The changes since then are more worrisome than the author projected.

To get an idea of how geopolitics might be affected by climate change, read The Coming Storm. It's speculative but not outrageous. I think we need to consider it as a warning of correctable problems.

My specific knowledge is limited here, so all I can tell you is where I would look if I had to make political decisions. You'll find quite a range of books at The Science Shelf Weather and Climate links page.

I don't think there's any more mileage in following this up on this blog, although I would invite you to e-mail me from my Science Shelf web site after you have read the books. I appreciate your open minded questioning. Now I'm saying, "Don't rely on my limited knowledge. Read more for yourself." And be both open-minded and skeptical of all claims made by people with axes to grind.

The only axe I'm grinding is respect for the scientific process and honest data.

Fred Bortz -- Science and technology books for young readers (www.fredbortz.com) and Science book reviews (www.scienceshelf.com)