Capt. David Williams, founder of the Deafwhale Society, has pounded the table for almost 20 years trying to tell marine mammal scientists and the entire world that pods of whales strand -- 30 days after experiencing a diving-related injury caused by potent pressure changes induce into the water when the seafloor shifts vertically during an undersea earthquake.
But marine mammal scientists turned a deaf ear because they were jealous that a lowly sea captain could solve a mystery that stumped the best whale scientists. The professional jealousy is commonly called the "Not Invented Here Syndrome."
Finally, after years of trying to get the bloody scientists to support his work and help him prove the earthquake connection, Capt Williams hit upon the idea of how to prove his work without any help from anyone.
He now monitors underwater earthquake activity and when a suspicious event occurs, issues a stranding alert predicting ~30 days in advance of when and where a pod of whales might beach themselves. The idea is that if pod beaching can be predicted based on certain earthquakes, then earthquakes at sea must indeed explain strandings regardless that the bubble-headed scientists insist otherwise.
These scientists want the public to believe that they must continue to study stranded whales to sort out the mystery so that public money will be made available. They are fearful that if the public finds out that whales strand due to a natural cause, the public will see that the best thing is let nature takes its course.
Anyway, on 13 December 2008, the following earthquake occur in the seafloor south of Perth Australia:
MW 5.9 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE: 08/12/13 04:45:36 PM local time at epicenter --- Epicenter: -49.035S 123.409E
USGS CENTROID MOMENT TENSOR: 08/12/13 08:45:49.50 Centroid: -48.575 123.972 Depth 10 No. of sta:114 Moment Tensor; Scale 10**17 Nm Mrr=-8.92 Mtt= 9.69 Mpp=-0.76 Mrt= 4.76 Mrp= 0.46 Mtp=-0.97 Principal axes: T Val= 10.90 Plg=13 Azm= 4 N -0.78 4 273 P -10.12 75 163 Best Double Couple:Mo=1.0*10**18 NP1:Strike=101 Dip=32 Slip= -80 NP2: 270 59 -95
This quake caught the attention of Capt. Williams and on 17 December 2008 he posted a blog entry predicting a pod stranding in Tasmania in the middle of January 2009.
http://deafwhale.blogspot.com/2008/12/pod-of-whales-predicted-to-strand-...
THE PREDICTION WAS ON TARGET!
In the middle of January, 48 earthquake-injured sperm whales stranded on Perkins Island on the shore of northwest Tasmania.
Of course, the jealous pee-brained whale scientists will insist that this was just a lucky guess.
Comments
Peer Review a Must for any Theory
March 2, 2009 by Anonymous, 38 weeks 6 days ago
Comment: 35005
For any theory to prove viable it must be reproducible. Others need to test and prove or disprove any conjecture. I am all for testing this novel idea. Good luck finding funding and a community willing to investigate further . . .
Cheers!
January 28, 2009 by Anonymous, 43 weeks 4 days ago
Comment: 34030
I hate to say this, but the captain has a point -- and hist story is nothing new. Just look back to the story of conquering Longitude and John Harrison's clocks. That type of intellectual elitism still runs rampant throughout academia, and no one outside of those hallowed walls can be credited with an original thought. The arrogance and elitism of many scientist are maddening -- even to someone who is a published scientist like myself! That being said, I still think that basic science should continue on the whales. There is evidence that the same type of injuries can occur from the use of military sonar, underwater explosives, etc. These researches are still valid. But discounting your ideas because you do not have a Ph.D. is doing a disservice to basic scientific inquiry and methods.
Captain, I personally find it heartening that you have met with such success, and would encourage you to continue looking for decent and respectful scientists to help you (actually I can even think of a couple I will inform about your efforts, and maybe they will take enough interest to get in contact).
The above point with false positives is interesting but likely misses a very important point -- there just might not be a pod of whales within proximity of danger. Whatever the number of false positives, it does not invalidate his model, but I agree that these results too should be reported and analized. The Captain has apparently been insulted by snooty scientists in the past and is reacting to it. I'm not surprised by his reaction, and neither should you. And for any of you who think that he is uneducated you should look at what it takes to get a captains license.
Once again Captain I applaud your efforts!!!
whales ability to sense pending earthquakes....
January 27, 2009 by Anonymous, 43 weeks 5 days ago
Comment: 33970
Yes, scientists are aware that cartain whales can pick up earthquake precursers. But this is giveaway to the cover up. Said differently, if science is aware that whales senses pending earthquakes, why have they avoided investigating earthquakes as a cause of mass strandings? Upheavals in the seafloor that might generate pressure changes in the water should be the major suspect but instead scientists avoid even the mention that an earthquake at sea might cause a whale to strand. How do you explain their avoidance of the topic?
One must also keep in mind that deep diving toothed whales have evolved near the most seismically active areas on the planet for at least 25 millions years. To think that they have not evolved a means to sense the pending danger from a seaquake would be just plain dumb. But even if they can detect an earthquake several hours in advance does not mean that they react to the warning signs. I believe whales are aware of the hazard but since only 10% of the earthquakes are dangerous to them, I also believe the whales often turn their backs to the 10% chance and just continue to feed.
accuracy of predictions
January 27, 2009 by Anonymous, 43 weeks 5 days ago
Comment: 33969
My accurancy is ~40% in predicting stranding and 90% in predicting periods when strandings will not occur. If I am allowed to go back my data used to make a wrong prediction and then correct my mistakes, my accurancy increases to 70% correct predictions.
What is really amazzing is how much I am learning every month about what types of earthquakes cause strandings and in what locations. I don't have time tio go into details but what I am learning is fantastic stuff both about whales and about earthquakes.
I believe after another few years practice and will some outside help, I should be able to predict strandings with 90%.
Straw Man
January 25, 2009 by Anonymous, 44 weeks 35 min ago
Comment: 33942
A 30-second search on google scholar for "whale stranding earthquake" yielded a paper published a decade ago proposing a mathematical model of a potential mechanism for some animals' abilities to detect impending geologic events. Scientists have not only been aware of the complex interplay between animal behavior and earthquakes; they have been attempting to determine the mechanism behind such an ability.
What the captain is doing is heartfelt, honest, and perhaps heroic. But for this article to claim that researchers are lying about stranding events to lie to the public and get more funding is a discredit to scientists who pursue - with heart rivaling the captain's, and scientific method to boot - a causal link between earthquakes and cetacean strandings.
re: whale stranding
January 25, 2009 by The_Urban_Scientist, 44 weeks 1 hour ago
Comment: 33939
sounds interesting. would like to hear more about this story from other sources.
False positive
January 25, 2009 by Anonymous, 44 weeks 17 hours ago
Comment: 33930
Ok captain, so what's the accuracy of your predictions? For the moment you have 1 true-positive. How many false-positives (time you predicted a stranding and there were none)? How many false-negatives (time you didn't predict a stranding and there was one)?
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